There are two competing narratives dominating crypto at the moment, with US President Trump’s pro-crypto stance on one end and concerns about the Federal Reserve potentially slowing its rate-cut agenda on the other. These are setting the stage for a tug-of-war in sentiment in the market. But with Bitcoin and other crypto assets hitting new record high prices by month’s end, what does February hold? Let’s see.

What happened in January? 

*Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

The market frenzy that pushed bitcoin past $100,000 late last year gave way to a more measured tone in early January. Bitcoin flirted with the $90,000 level several times, including a notable dip to $89,000, coinciding with US inflation data releases. However, by mid-January, all eyes were on Donald Trump’s inauguration and the potential ripple effects from a pro-crypto President. Bitcoin rebounded around the same time as Trump taking office, posting a new all-time high of around $109,000. Many others such as Solana (SOL) followed the market leader to post impressive gains of more than 40% over a week.

XRP returned to the kind of prominence it hadn’t seen in nearly a decade, rallying 41% over a seven-day period towards the end of January. Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse was reportedly spotted with Trump, fueling speculation, alongside chatter about Ripple’s upcoming stablecoin, RLUSD. At the same time, others like Hedera (HBAR) and Algorand (ALGO) saw solid price growth. 

The Fed meets 29 January to make their first interest rate call of 2025. Will February provide investors with more all-time highs and a clearer path? 

What’s happening in February? 

SEC Chair appointment

February 

Why investors care

It’s unclear when exactly the new Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission will be appointed, but nominations usually start soon after the resignation of the outgoing Chair, which was on 20 January. Trump has already nominated Paul Atkins, generally seen as pro-crypto, to lead the regulator. 

US unemployment rate

7 February

Why investors care

Strong jobs numbers may lead the Fed to maintain higher interest rates to curb inflation, while weak data could prompt rate cuts to stimulate growth. 

What happened last month? 

The unemployment rate slowed to 4.1% in December 2024, down from 4.2% in November – below market expectations of remaining at 4.2%. 

US inflation numbers

12 February 

Why investors care

Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished significantly after the latest numbers from December.

What happened last time? 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in December 2024, marking the largest monthly gain since March last year. 

The Sandbox (SAND) token unlock

14 February 

Why investors care

About 205 million SAND tokens (representing 8.9% of the total supply) are set to be released. This kind of event can be a double-edged sword for crypto projects. On one hand, it can create excitement around the crypto and its ecosystem. But releasing such a significant number of tokens at once increases the available supply, potentially putting downward pressure on the price if demand doesn’t match the increase in supply.

Avalanche (AVAX) token unlock

16 February 

Why investors care

Avalanche will release about 0.41% of its circulating supply, possibly impacting supply and demand dynamics in this market. 

Arbitrum (ARB) token unlock

16 February 

Why investors care

Arbitrum will unlock 92,650,000 ARB, constituting about 2.20% of the current circulating supply. As with all token unlocks, it could add pressure to the price if new demand doesn’t absorb the supply. 

FOMC minutes

19 February  

Why investors care

Two key narratives in financial markets currently are Trump’s administration and its impact on markets and whether the Fed will pause rate cuts this year. Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting could highlight reasons for their decision to pause cuts, while also shedding light on expectations for the rest of the year. 

*Investing in cryptocurrency may result in the loss of capital. This information should not be construed as a solicitation to trade. All opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary for information purposes only and is not investment advice or recommendation. Luno always advises you to obtain your own independent financial advice before investing or trading in cryptocurrency.