February saw renewed inflation concerns, fuelled by the potential fallout from US trade tariffs. This created an uncertain dynamic across both crypto and traditional markets, with Bitcoin and others mostly seeing either deep losses or trading in a tight range. There were a few exceptions though. Fantom was among the few to show solid momentum. 

What will it take for BTC and others to break the slump? Let’s look at potential catalysts in March. 

What happened in February? 

After a strong start to the year, the crypto market saw sharp pull-backs in February. Bitcoin (BTC) ended the month down more than 20% over 30 days, while Ethereum (ETH) and many altcoins also suffered losses.

Solana (SOL) was among the hardest hit, dropping more than 40% over the month, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in the market. But not all cryptocurrencies struggled. Fantom (FTM) defied the trend, surging more than 30% in the latter half of the month, while Maker (MKR) posted a 40% gain over 30 days.

Macroeconomic uncertainty weighed on sentiment, say analysts. The Federal Reserve’s renewed focus on inflation and tempered rate-cut expectations kept risk assets in check, while concerns over the potential fallout from US trade tariffs added another layer of caution. Towards the end of the month, the hack of Dubai-based crypto exchange Bybit also added to market uncertainty.

With Bitcoin still range-bound, we’ll have to see if crypto markets can come back in a meaningful way in March.  

What’s happening in March? 

Ethereum upgrade test

5 March 

Why investors care

The Ethereum Pectra upgrade will launch on the Sepolia testnet, a key trial before being implemented. Designed to enhance efficiency and scalability, the upgrade is part of Ethereum’s push to dominate the smart-contract blockchain market. Even in testing, its success could impact market sentiment.

ECB interest rate decision

6 March 

Why investors care

Inflation remains a global concern, especially since the Fed paused rate cuts. Will the European Central Bank follow suit?

What happened last time? 

The ECB lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with expectations. The decision forms part of the bank’s efforts to manage inflation and address weak economic growth in the Eurozone.

White House Crypto Summit

7 March 

Why investors care

President Trump is set to host the first ever Crypto Summit at the White House, where he is expected to give more details about the creation of a US crypto reserve and the country’s plans for crypto in future. The confirmed inclusion of certain cryptocurrencies in this reserve could lead to heightened investor interest in these assets. 

US unemployment rate

7 March 

Why investors care

Investors track unemployment numbers because it signals economic health and influences Federal policy. Low unemployment suggests strong growth but can trigger inflation concerns, leading to higher interest rates that weigh on stocks and crypto markets. High unemployment, on the other hand, raises recession fears, potentially prompting rate cuts that could boost markets.

What happened last month? 

The unemployment rate decreased to 4%, down from 4.1% in December 2024. This marked the lowest level since May 2024, and was slightly below market expectations of 4.1%. 

US inflation numbers

12 March  

Why investors care

Last month’s numbers indicated stalled progress in curbing inflation, which could influence monetary policy decisions and investor expectations regarding interest rates.

What happened last month? 

The annual inflation rate edged up to 3% in January 2025, compared to 2.9% in December 2024, surpassing market forecasts. 

Arbitrum (ARB) token unlock

16 March 

Why investors care  

Arbitrum will unlock over 92 million ARB (2% of its circulating supply) potentially shifting supply-demand dynamics and impacting price.

Fed interest rate decision

19 March   

Why investors care

Interest rates are back on the radar, with investors expecting the next rate cut by the Fed to only happen in September this year. 

What happened last time? 

The Fed left interest rates unchanged in its last meeting at the end of January, saying it needed clearer signs of progress against inflation before it could reconsider cutting rates. 

ImmutableX (IMX) token unlock

21 March 

Why investors care  

Arbitrum will unlock 24.52 million IMX, roughly 1.39% of current supply. As with any token unlock, if the increase in supply isn’t met by an increase in demand, it can put temporary downward pressure on price. 

*Investing in cryptocurrency may result in the loss of capital. This information should not be construed as a solicitation to trade. All opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary for information purposes only and is not investment advice or recommendation. Luno always advises you to obtain your own independent financial advice before investing or trading in cryptocurrency.