Last month saw Bitcoin and others consolidating near May highs despite rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. July’s data could confirm investors’ hopes or fears. Here’s what to watch.

June recap

If May was about Bitcoin finding a new price ceiling, June was all about defending the key price floor. It did this successfully several times, bouncing off a monthly low of around $100,000 on 5 June, and again twice later in the month, holding above $103,000. It’s a good omen, analysts say, especially considering the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and ongoing concerns about tariff-driven inflation. On this note, there was a hawkish tone to the Fed’s pause on rates at the end of the month, relating to uncertainty about lagging inflation yet to materialise. 

Apart from a few notable price spikes, Ethereum remained steady for much of May, closing out the latter part of the month at virtually the same price as at the start. Many of the mid-caps — Solana, Cardano, Chainlink, Avalanche, and others — saw sharper price reactions to market uncertainty compared to the previous month. 

Barring any unexpected major crypto developments, analysts are watching in July whether conflict in the Middle East escalates and if the expected inflation from tariffs becomes evident in the data.

What’s happening in July? 

US unemployment rate

3 July  

Why investors care

June data showed a US labour market that is still strong but showing early signs of softening. The Fed, in their meeting later in the month, will be concerned about both sides of the equation, not wanting to cut rates too early and risk reigniting inflation, while also being mindful of potential labour market softening.

EU and US trade deal deadline

9 July 

Why investors care

The two nations are working to reach an agreement on trade tariffs by the 9 July deadline, as part of Trump’s sweeping tariff measures against trading partners. Both stocks and crypto have shown sensitivity to tariff developments.

FOMC minutes

9 July   

Why investors care

Most investors and analysts expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged until September, shifting attention to the finer details in Chair Jerome Powell’s press briefings and other signals from the Fed’s meetings. Investors will be scrutinising the minutes for any such clues.

Polkadot (DOT) payment card vote

9-10 July 

Why investors care

A Polkadot payment card could impact utility and adoption, making DOT more relevant for everyday transactions, but it depends on execution and widespread adoption, both uncertain at this proposal stage.

US inflation 

15 July  

Why investors care

Analysts expect Trump’s tariff policies to reignite inflation, they’re just not sure when it will start to show up clearly in the economic data. If anywhere, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be it.

US Gross Domestic Product (Q2 preliminary)

25 July

Why investors care

The data will show whether the US economy is maintaining momentum or showing signs of the slowdown that could justify Fed rate cuts. Strong GDP supports risk-on sentiment, while weak growth might accelerate monetary easing but also signal broader economic concerns.

Fed interest rate decision 

30 July 

Why investors care

Powell hinted at two more rate cuts before the end of the year. As we move into the latter half of 2025 and the number of remaining meetings dwindles, investors will be watching each Fed meeting closely to see if this is the one where policy begins to ease. 

* Investing in cryptocurrency could result in the loss of capital. This information is not intended to be nor does it constitute financial, tax, legal, investment or other advice; nor is it a call to trade. The information is intended as general market commentary for information purposes only. Before making any decision or taking any action regarding your finances, you should consult a qualified Financial Advisor.