Crypto slides as BOJ announced possible rate hike, and Ethereum eyes Fusaka upgrade

Team Luno

December 1, 2025 · 26 minute read

01 December

Bitcoin drops from ~$91K to ~$86K as markets test resistance between $90K–$92K, with Ethereum and other crypto assets also losing ground.
Bank of Japan announced a potential December rate hike.
US markets remain relatively stable, though Wall Street is yet to open.
Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade, designed to boost network performance and scalability, is expected Wednesday, though timelines have shifted in the past.

Just as things were looking steady last week, this week opens with a 4-6% slide across crypto markets as November’s volatility refuses to fade. Analysts have flagged a resistance zone between $90,000 and $92,000 for Bitcoin, and it played out this morning as the market-cap leader pulled back from roughly $91,000 to about $86,000 within hours. Ethereum and others followed lower overnight.

Some traders pointed to the Bank of Japan’s signal that it could consider a rate hike in December, a move that in the past has triggered global de-risking, with the mid-2024 unwind of the yen carry trade still fresh in memory. Wall Street has remained largely untouched so far, though US markets only open around mid-day. More on that below.

Otherwise, the big development this week is the looming Ethereum upgrade known as Fusaka, aimed at improving performance and scalability by optimising how data is stored and processed. It’s part of the original smart-contract platform’s push to stay competitive as rivals like Solana encroach on its core markets. The upgrade is expected on Wednesday, though Ethereum timelines have been known to slip at the last minute.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.029 trillion, down 4.9% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

~$86,781 down 4.8% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$2,841, down 5.6% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 0.5%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 0.65%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

20/100 in Extreme Fear

Data is correct as at 01 December 10:58 GMT.

Newsmaker

Bank of Japan announces potential rate cut in December

The Bank of Japan will consider the “pros and cons” of raising interest rates at its next policy meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday, according to Reuters.
“We will examine and discuss economic and price developments at home and abroad, as well as market moves … and consider the pros and cons of raising interest rates,” the BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said.
BOJ rate hikes have in the past rippled through global markets due to something called the yen carry trade.
It involves investors borrowing cheaply in Japanese yen, due to very low interest rates set by the Bank of Japan and using those funds to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad, such as stocks and bonds.
In mid-2024, when the BOJ began hiking rates and the yen strengthened, the cost of repaying yen-denominated debt rose sharply, eroding carry-trade profits and forcing many investors to unwind their positions.
That process began in earnest in mid-2024 when the first significant rate increase triggered a rapid yen appreciation and a broad sell-off in global markets.

*Investing in cryptocurrency may result in the loss of capital. This information should not be construed as a solicitation to trade. All opinions, news, research, analysis, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary for information purposes only and is not investment advice or recommendation. Luno always advises you to obtain your own independent financial advice before investing or trading in cryptocurrency.

25 November

Fed rate-cut hopes resurface, after two governors signal support for easing amid weakening labour data.
Markets rally on dovish signals, with the Nasdaq 100 jumping over 2% and Bitcoin climbing toward $87,300.
Investors debate Bitcoin’s next move, weighing a rebound toward $90K against the risk of a renewed slide toward last week’s $80K lows.
Solana inflation-cut proposal sparks debate, raising questions about network economics and potential DeFi implications.

Renewed optimism over Federal Reserve policy is rippling through markets, with investors warming to the idea that rate cuts may still be on the table at the December meeting. The shift comes after two Fed governors voiced support for another reduction, pointing to further deterioration in labour-market conditions. Adding to this, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a Sunday note he expects the Fed to cut again in December, followed by two additional moves in March and June of 2026.

The Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 2% overnight, while Bitcoin advanced to roughly $87,300 early Tuesday. Ethereum added about 2.6%, tracking the upswing across risk assets.

The real question for crypto traders now: is Bitcoin carving out a rebound toward $90,000 after last week’s dip to $80,000, or merely catching its breath before another leg lower? Sentiment remains fragile, and positioning cautious.

Elsewhere in digital assets, a proposal from a Solana developer to cut the network’s inflation rate has sparked debate across the ecosystem. The plan, which would reduce the issuance of new SOL tokens used to reward stakers, could alter the economics of one of crypto’s largest DeFi platforms, making it one of the more closely watched governance discussions.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↗️

Approx. $3.086 trillion, up 1.2% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

~$87,381 up 0.7% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↗️

~$2,897, up 2.6% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 1.55%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 2.62%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

20/100 in Extreme Fear

Data is correct as at 25 November 08:41 GMT.

Newsmaker

Solana dev proposes new tokenomics

A Solana developer has proposed increasing the rate at which the blockchain reduces staking rewards to reduce token inflation in future, according to DL News.
“High token inflation increases sell pressure, as some stakers treat staking rewards as ordinary income and need to sell a portion to cover taxes,” Lostintime101, a Solana technical writer and researcher at Helius, a Solana developer platform, said in the proposal.
It’s not a first for this type of proposal. In March, Solana’s validators voted on a similar one aimed at reducing staking rewards by around 66%, but the vote only received 61% of votes in favour, falling short of the 66.67% supermajority needed for it to pass.

24 November

Key points

Bitcoin rebounds to about $86,800 after last week’s drop toward $80,000
Analysts flag BTC’s “max-pain zone” between $84,000 and $73,000
Institutional demand holds steady as Bitwise and Franklin Templeton roll out XRP ETFs
US inflation data delayed due to shutdown, leaving the Fed “driving in the fog”

Markets are off to a better start than last week, but that doesn’t say much after one of the most turbulent stretches in crypto markets in months. Most analysts argue there’s still reason for caution despite the modest uptick in price and sentiment. Bitcoin is trading around $86,800 after posting lows near $80,000 last week, levels Bitwise Head of Research André Dragosch described as its “max pain” zone between $84,000 and $73,000.

It’s still a tug of war between panic sellers and opportunistic positioning, according to the weekly 10X Research note. Investors are now asking whether last week’s bounce off $80K, coupled with a slight improvement in the Fear & Greed Index, though still stuck in Extreme Fear, signals a potential floor.

Despite the turbulence, institutional appetite hasn’t cooled. Bitwise and Franklin Templeton became the latest to launch XRP ETFs.

On the macro front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it won’t release the October inflation report due to the government shutdown during that period, arguing the data can’t be collected retroactively. The gap leaves US policymakers, and crucially the Federal Reserve, “driving in the fog,” as Chair Jerome Powell put it.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↗️

Approx. $3.046 trillion, up 1.2% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

~$86,823 up 1.4% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↗️

~$2,825, up 1.3% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 0.9%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 0.7%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

19/100 in Extreme Fear

Data is correct as at 24 November 07:32 GMT.

Newsmaker

October US inflation report cancelled

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled its October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to the government shutdown in that period, stating that the data can’t be retroactively collected.
“Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, had already likened the central bank’s task of guiding the economy, without standard data on its performance, to ‘driving in the fog’,” The Guardian reported. “We’re going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate it and think carefully about it,” he said last month. “What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down.”
There’s been some good news, however, with one Fed policymaker, John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, noting on Friday that he still saw “room for a further adjustment in the near term” to rates.

21 November

Key points

Crypto market cap slumps more than 8% in sharp risk-off move
Stocks also showing signs of pressure
Bitcoin retreats to levels last seen in January
Fear & Greed Index hits Extreme Fear as risk assets face broad pressure

There’s been a wave of volatility as sell-offs sweep through crypto markets this morning, with the total market cap down more than 8%. Some market watchers pin the move on the “new whales”, institutions and ETF-driven players now repositioning portfolios, the same cohort that helped propel prices higher over the past year. As 10X notes, “The new whales are driving it, Wall Street participants, particularly ETF investors, who are now liquidating positions regardless of price.” The latest slide drags Bitcoin back to levels last seen at the beginning of the year.

Indicators are reflecting the week’s uncertainty. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 11/100, firmly in Extreme Fear, while the Crypto Relative Strength Index sits deep in oversold territory. Broader risk signals are flashing too, with treasuries seeing heightened interest and pressure spilling into US stocks.

What could stem the flow, and where does it end? Those remain the defining questions in what’s been a turbulent week in crypto.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $2.95 trillion, down 8.2% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

~$83,550 down 9.08% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$2,728, down 9.7% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↘️

Down 1.5%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↘️

Down 2.38%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

11/100 in Extreme Fear

Data is correct as at 21 November 09:21 GMT.

Newsmaker

Bitwise spot XRP ETF launches

Bitwise’s spot XRP ETF started trading yesterday in what’s been a rough week for crypto markets.
“XRP is a really intriguing asset for several reasons,” said Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. “It has operated successfully for a very long period of time at extremely low cost, it processes high transaction volumes, and it has a really strong and vibrant community of supporters.
Bitwise’s fund will be the second spot XRP product following Canary Capital’s XRPC. “Canary’s fund has accumulated $276.8 million in net inflows since launching last week,” The Block reports. Bitwise already launched the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) in Europe that provides investors with direct, physically-backed exposure to the cryptocurrency.
The price of XRP is down roughly 8% overnight.

20 November

Bitcoin posts a second straight green day, rising 0.8%

Fear levels remain historically deep

Nvidia beats expectations, lifting US equities

US Senate signals movement on crypto regulation

That’s two consecutive daily green candles for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, which is some consolation for investors after a volatile few weeks. The gains are modest, though, with Bitcoin up 0.8% overnight and total crypto market value rising 0.2%. The drawdowns have been steep, but some analysts argue that given the historic levels of Fear in the market – deeper than during FTX or the Covid crash – Bitcoin’s price has held up comparatively well.

In equities, the headline story is Nvidia, which pulled off the near-impossible by topping lofty investor expectations in its latest earnings release. CFO Colette Kress said the company will “probably” take even more orders on top of the $500 billion already announced, helping lift broader US equity benchmarks.

On the regulatory front, US Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott said Tuesday the committee could vote on the long-awaited crypto market-structure bill in December. “By the end of this year, next month, we believe we can mark up and vote in both committees and get this to the floor of the Senate early next year so that President Trump will sign the legislation,” Scott said on Fox Business. The bill aims to strengthen consumer protections while reinforcing the US’s economic and technological leadership.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↗️

Approx. $3.22 trillion, up 0.2% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

~$92,228 up 0.8% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$3,022, down 1.2% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 0.38%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 0.56%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

11/100 in Extreme Fear

Data is correct as at 20 November 04:48 GMT.

Newsmaker

Nvidia earnings beat Wall Street expectations

Chief executive Jensen Huang said in a statement that sales of its AI Blackwell systems were “off the charts” and that “cloud GPUs are sold out, according to the BBC.
“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different,” he said on a call with analysts.
Fear around an AI bubble has been growing as high-profile investors reduce exposure, including tech billionaire Peter Thiel, who sold his entire Nvidia stake, and perma-bear investor Michael Burry, who placed large put-option bets against Nvidia and Palantir.

18 November

Bitcoin drops below a key psychological level, trading just above $90,000 after institutional repositioning.
ETF outflows point to risk-off positioning, with big investors locking in profits ahead of year-end.
Mt. Gox estate moves $900M in BTC, stoking fresh concerns about forced selling.
US jobs data on Thursday is one to watch, as the government reopening restores the flow of key economic indicators.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market continue to grind lower as institutional investors reposition ahead of year-end. “Bitcoin has fallen below the $90,000 mark in today’s session, a significant psychological break that underscores the market’s current fragility,” Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, told The Block. “Institutional investors are leading the charge, with ETF outflows signalling profit-taking and risk-off positioning.”

The market leader is now hovering just above $90,000, its weakest level in months, while Ethereum and other large-caps mirror the slide. Sentiment has been further hit by the Mt. Gox estate moving more than $900 million in BTC to a single wallet, a transfer that some say could foreshadow a sale to repay creditors. Add to that the persistent uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut, and risk appetite remains thin.

Analysts say the reopening of the US government, and the return of fresh economic data, could help re-anchor investor expectations. Thursday’s US nonfarm payrolls report is shaping up to be the key macro event that could nudge investors off the sidelines.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.18 trillion, down about 4.5% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

~$90,344, down 5.6% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$3,024, down 5.5% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↘️

Down 0.92%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↘️

Down 0.83%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

11/100 in Extreme Fear

Data is correct as at 18 November 07:53 GMT.

Newsmaker

Investors await Nvidia Q3 earnings results tomorrow

Nvidia is set to report its Q3 earnings tomorrow after the bell, one of the most anticipated updates on the calendar, given its role as the AI industry’s bellwether and its outsized influence on indices like the S&P 500.
Yahoo finance reports: “For Q3, analysts are anticipating adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26 on revenue of $55.2 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus data. That would represent increases of 55% and 57% increase versus the $0.81 EPS and $35.1 billion the company reported in the same period last year.”
As Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster wrote in a note, “The cross currents around next week’s earnings set up a Catch-22 for the AI complex, because stronger guidance can amplify worries about overspending, while a modest raise can be read as the first sign that growth is normalizing faster than expected.”

18 November

Bitcoin falls below $100K – and slides to around $95,600
Fear and Greed Index – sinks further into “Extreme Fear”
Markets await delayed data – US nonfarm payrolls data expected on Thursday
Fed rate-cut expectations fade – adding to broader risk-off tone

Bitcoin lost its grip on the $100,000 level last week and, as many analysts warned, drifted lower in the aftermath. The market-cap leader is trading around $95,600 this morning, extending a move that some market watchers say reflects deeper liquidity concerns. As 10X noted in its newsletter: “$100,000 level might offer initial support, a breakdown in the coming weeks remained increasingly plausible, with the deeper concern being liquidity: sentiment alone cannot counteract capital exiting the ecosystem.”

The rest of the market has followed, though prices appear to be stabilising after forming a tentative floor overnight. Even so, nerves are frayed. The Fear and Greed Index slipped further into “Extreme Fear.”

Traders will be watching for fresh economic signals out of the US this week, with the delayed September nonfarm payrolls report due Thursday after the government shutdown pushed back key data releases. Confidence in a year-end Fed rate cut has also faded, adding another layer of pressure to markets. For now, the question hanging over crypto is which catalyst, macro or market-specific, might be strong enough to revive optimism.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.33 trillion, down about 0.5% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

~$95,603, down 0.4% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$3,196, down 0.63% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↘️

Down 0.05%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 0.05%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

14/100 in Extreme Fear

Data is correct as at 17 November 08:49 GMT.

Newsmaker

Harvard triples down on Bitcoin bet

“Harvard University has nearly tripled the size of its spot bitcoin ETF holdings, according to a disclosure filed on Friday detailing the U.S. holdings of the world’s largest academic endowment,” The Block reports.
The university reported owning 6,813,612 shares of IBIT, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, in Q3, a 257% increase from the 1,906,000 shares the university previously reported holding as of June.
The IBIT position is the largest of any declared holdings, beating out Microsoft, Amazon, and the SPDR Gold Trust.

14 November

Bitcoin remains stuck in what Glassnode calls a “mild bearish range,” consolidating between $100,000 and $110,000 since early October. While there have been brief rallies and strong defences of the $100K level, momentum has largely stalled across the broader crypto market, with most major cryptocurrencies moving sideways. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% overnight. One notable exception has been Uniswap (UNI), which despite giving up 6% overnight, remains up 51% for the week and 21% for the month, far outpacing peers in its market-cap range. Starknet (STRK) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) have also seen some short-lived gains in recent sessions.

Analysts say the lack of conviction stems from a mix of market caution and the absence of clear macro catalysts. “Since the leverage flush in October, both funding rates and open interest have drifted lower, signalling that traders are staying cautious with limited directional exposure,” Glassnode noted in its latest report. In essence, fewer leveraged bets suggest traders are unsure about the next major move.

Adding to the uncertainty, the release of key US inflation data scheduled for today is expected to be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, depriving investors of a key signal on the Federal Reserve’s next move. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that a rate cut at the central bank’s December 9–10 meeting is not “a foregone conclusion,” underscoring the data fog that continues to cloud market expectations.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.58 trillion, down about 0.1% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

~$103,684, up 0.2% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↗️

~$3,541, up 2.6% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 0.06%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 0.06%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

15/100 in Extreme Fear

Data is correct as at 13 November 08:30 GMT.

Newsmaker

Clear the data fog by prioritising US November economic data, say economists

Prioritise the November employment and inflation reports when the government reopens, economists said, according to Reuters.
“Only the September Consumer Price Index report was published during the official government data blackout that started on October 1, making it hard to get a clear read of the economy, though private institutions tried to fill the void,” Reuters reports.
“From a monetary policy perspective, you want the November data first,” said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. “Ideally, you don’t want the data to be released chronologically … you don’t want to have November data in January. You want the November data first, and then you backfill from that point.”

12 November

Bitcoin remains range-bound amid a lack of strong macro catalysts.
The prolonged US government shutdown has delayed key economic data and crypto ETF reviews, but there’s hope.
Uniswap’s UNI token has soared 68% after a major upgrade proposal.

A lack of “clear and durable macro catalysts,” notes 10X Research, is keeping Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies in check after markets took a hit following the renewed tariff threats from the US on China in October. The fading promise of looser monetary policy by the Fed and the ongoing US government shutdown haven’t helped sentiment.

On that note, there has been progress, with Republicans and Democrats reaching a tentative agreement on spending this past Sunday, possibly bringing an end to the longest government shutdown in US history. The shutdown has furloughed staff responsible for key US economic data, including inflation and employment figures that influence the Fed’s rate decisions. Even the Securities and Exchange Commission has been slowed, leaving a backlog of crypto ETF applications idling on its desk. Reports suggest the government could return to work by the end of this week.

Uniswap has been making headlines. UNI, the native token of the decentralised trading network, surged 30% earlier this week following an upgrade proposal aimed at turning Uniswap into a one-stop shop for trading across platforms. UNI is up more than 68% this week, despite the broader crypto market remaining largely stagnant.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.56 trillion, down about 2.2% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

~$103,283, down 2% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$3,447, down 3.1% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 0.21%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↘️

Down 0.31%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

24/100 in Fear

Data is correct as at 12 November 05:17 GMT.

Newsmaker

Uniswap price surges on upgrade proposal

A new proposal wants to make Uniswap work as a one-stop shop for trading across different platforms. It would let Uniswap earn fees from other liquidity sources and possibly strengthen its position as a key player in decentralised finance (DeFi).
Uniswap is a decentralised platform that lets people trade cryptocurrencies directly with each other, without needing a traditional exchange or middleman.
The price of Uniswap (UNI) surged by more than 30% earlier in the week following the news. While there was some profit-taking after the pulse, UNI is up more than 68% over the week and 32% over 30 days.

10 November

Bitcoin rebounds – above $105K after testing $100K support last week
Altcoins rally – with ETH up 6%, XRP 8%, and UNI 14%
US government set to resume operations – easing some macro uncertainty

Bitcoin climbed back above $105,000 this morning after repeated tests of the $100K support level last week, dipping as low as $98,500 on Friday. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is up around 4% overnight, lifting the broader market. Ethereum gained more than 6%, XRP surged over 8%, and Uniswap rallied 14% in a strong rebound across major crypto assets.

The catalyst for the rally remains unclear, but macro sentiment looks to be improving. The announcement of the possible end of the US government shutdown was welcomed after Senate Democrats and Republicans struck a deal tied to future healthcare subsidies. Meanwhile, futures markets are cautiously pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. “We don’t see a rate cut as a foregone conclusion yet… the decision will depend on incoming data and the balance of risks,” economists at ANZ told Reuters.

While the recovery may have lifted spirits after last week’s slump, risk appetite remains fragile. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 29, still in “Fear” territory, suggesting traders are far from convinced that volatility is a thing of the past.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↗️

Approx. $3.67 trillion, up about 4.5% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

~$106,315, up 4.5% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↗️

~$3,623, up 7.3% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 0.13%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↘️

Down 0.28%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

29/100 in Fear

Data is correct as at 10 November 05:20 GMT.

Newsmaker

Reopening of US government set into motion

“The Senate has voted 60-40 on a key step toward reopening the government. The vote came after a critical group of eight Senate Democratic centrists reached a deal with Senate GOP leaders and the White House to reopen the government in exchange for a future vote on extending enhanced Affordable Care subsidies,” according to CNN.
The US government shut down due to a prolonged budget impasse in Congress, where lawmakers have failed to agree on a new spending bill to fund federal operations.
Yesterday’s vote paves the way for the US government to be reopened, but it’s not a done deal just yet.
“Republican leaders are expected to move to amend the legislation passed tonight to attach a package of full-year appropriation bills, which was agreed with breakaway Democrats during negotiations,” according to live reporting by the BBC.

07 November

🟠 Bitcoin dropped 1.9% overnight – broader crypto markets down 0.8%.

📉 Longer-term drawdown – Markets have dipped significantly from October highs.

🫥 Is Bitcoin in a “silent IPO” phase? – Could be, according to some market commentators.

Bitcoin is down 1.9% overnight, continuing to tread choppy waters, a trend reflected across the broader crypto market, which slipped 0.8% over 24 hours. As we head into the weekend, macro uncertainty tied to the Fed’s next moves, tariff jitters, and a sell-off in AI stocks continue to weigh on both equities and crypto.

Some Wall Street voices argue that fundamentals remain strong. Citing veteran Jordi Visser, Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan suggests Bitcoin could be in a “silent IPO” phase — similar to when newly public stocks trade sideways for six to 18 months. Could this be the longer-term pattern, and what does it mean for markets going forward?

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.47 trillion, down about 0.8% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

~$100,96, down 1.9% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$3,307, down 2.3% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↘️

Down 1.2%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↘️

Down 1.9%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

24/100 in Fear

Newsmaker

Has Bitcoin’s IPO moment arrived?

Bitcoin has been trading unevenly over the past month, but Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan suggests the lull may mark the crypto’s “IPO moment.”
Citing Wall Street veteran Jordi Visser, Hougan says Bitcoin could be in a “silent IPO” phase, a period similar to when newly public stocks often trade sideways for six to 18 months.
Paraphrasing Visser, Hougan notes that this kind of consolidation isn’t necessarily bearish: early holders who took outsized risks are cashing out after massive gains, while institutions are gradually stepping in. “The process of insiders selling and institutions buying takes time,” he says. “Only once that balance is reached can the next leg higher begin.”

💪 Bitcoin holding $100K – a critical support level.

📈 Broader market in the positive – entire crypto market cap up 0.5%.

💰 Are investors looking to gold and AI? – Some analysts suggest investors could be rotating into other assets.

Crypto markets are up this morning, with Bitcoin continuing to defend the key $100,000 level, not for the first time since October. Analysts note this is a crucial level, and a break below could put further pressure on the market. Ethereum has also shown resilience overnight, with many other crypto assets trading in a similar pattern. The total crypto market cap is up around 0.5%, suggesting the broader market has found some stable ground overnight, at least for now.

Analysts attribute some of the risk-off sentiment to gold’s strong run over the past few months and AI stocks attracting capital away from crypto. Large holders taking profits, combined with the Fed’s signals dampening hopes for another rate cut in December and ongoing US-China trade tensions, also weigh on sentiment. On a positive note, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a trade deal at the beginning of the month, set to take effect on 10 November, easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Despite short-term volatility, some say the long-term fundamentals remain intact. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, told The Block, “If bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact.” More on this below.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↗️

Approx. $3.52 trillion, up about 0.5% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

~$103,207, up 1.1% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↗️

~$3,377, up 1.3% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 0.37%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 0.72%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

27/100, in Fear

Newsmaker

Galaxy and others weigh in on crypto markets – The Block

What do analysts expect from the markets in the short-term? The Block reports: Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, wrote that while Bitcoin’s long-term case “remains structurally sound,” the year has been defined by heavy whale distribution, ETF-driven absorption, and waning retail participation. “If bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower,” he said.
Analysts told The Block the market remains “fragile”, with whales taking profits, and investors rotating into gold and AI stocks. While Bitcoin is at an inflection point, sentiment could turn.
“Fear-driven sentiment and heavy selling from long-term holders have compounded the weakness,” said K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde, who described bitcoin’s current phase as a “crucial inflection point”, but adds, “conditions [could align] for a potential bullish reversal once risk appetite returns.”

5 November

🟠 Markets in Extreme Fear – Bitcoin holds above $100K but drops 2% overnight; Ethereum down 4% and mid- and small-cap tokens see deeper losses.

📉 Tech stocks slide – Nasdaq 100 falls 2% as profit-taking hits heavyweights like Nvidia.

🦅 Supreme court watch – Markets eye the US tariff case, with potential policy enforcement shifts if the Trump administration loses.

Crypto markets remain on edge, with sentiment mired in Extreme Fear. Bitcoin is clinging to the $100,000 level but slipped another 2% overnight, while Ethereum (ETH) fell more than 4%. Losses deepened across mid- and small-cap cryptocurrencies, underscoring the broader risk-off tone.

The sell-off, which began in early October following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports, has been compounded by last week’s hawkish rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned investors not to assume another reduction at the next meeting, dampening hopes for continued looser policy.

The unease is also prevalent in US equities. Tech shares led declines, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping roughly 2% overnight amid profit-taking in heavyweights such as Nvidia. Analysts say some traders may also be repositioning ahead of today’s US Supreme Court hearing, where the Trump administration will defend its tariff policy against a coalition of small businesses and states that argue the measures are illegal. The White House has vowed to pursue alternative enforcement if it loses the case.

Plenty for investors to digest this week.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.38 trillion, down about 2.2% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

~$101,727, down 2% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$3,304, down 5.1% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↘️

Down 1.17%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↘️

Down 2%.

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

23/100 in Extreme Fear

Newsmaker

Nvidia share price tumbles after rally

The Nvidia share price is down close to 4% overnight, with some analysts attributing the sell-off to profit-taking. “The selloff appears to be largely positioning-driven, with recent outperforming names taking the worst of the move,” Jon Withaar, senior portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management in Singapore, commented to Reuters.
After yesterday’s dip, Nvidia shares are down about 7% from last month’s peak.
“It’s fairly blanket selling in the risk-leverage part of the market, which to us looks like short-term profit taking,” said Angus McGeoch, Barrenjoey’s head of equities distribution for Asia in Hong Kong.

4 November

🚀 Solana ETFs attract $417 million inflows – SOL price dips, despite inflows.

🔄 Bitcoin price drops 2-3% – market cautious despite stable macro signals.

🟡 Fear and Greed Index dips to 42 – indicating growing crypto market fear.

Crypto markets have been choppy, with Bitcoin down between 2-3% over the past 24 hours, now trading near $108,000. Ethereum dropped more than 3% to just below $3,800, while Solana held steady around $187, showing some resilience after last week’s launch of two Solana-based ETFs. Together, Bitwise’s new Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) and Grayscale’s GSOL brought in around $417 million in their first week, with BSOL taking in nearly half of that on its own.

Investor sentiment has cooled, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index slipping to 40 out of 100, signaling growing caution as uncertainty lingers.

In traditional markets, US stocks were mixed. The S&P 500 added 0.3%, the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%.

Following October’s 25-basis-point move, Chair Jerome Powell said that policymakers could pause and assess how recent easing measures play out before deciding on next steps for US monetary policy.

The Data

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.6 trillion, down about 3.2% overnight.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

~$108,000, down 2.8% in 24 hours.

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

~$3,780, down 3.2% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

Up 0.3%.

📉 Dow Jones Industrial Average ↘️

Down 0.1%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 0.7%.

🟡 Fear & Greed Index

42/100, signalling increasing market fear.

Newsmaker

Solana ETFs post strong debut as Bitwise BSOL leads crypto ETP inflows

The two Solana spot-ETFs launched last week attracted net inflows of approximately $417 million during the first week. Bitwise’s BSOL ETF secured $197 million and attracted substantial investor interest by temporarily waiving fees. Grayscale’s GSOL ETF accounted for the balance of inflows. Despite the strong inflows, Solana’s price remained under pressure.
Industry analysts suggest the ETFs could bolster Solana’s mainstream adoption.
“It’s reasonable to benchmark [Solana] to the other ETP products that we have in the market,” Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, told DL News. “Over a, say, one- to two-year period, seeing at least 5% of the underlying [Solana] token held in these ETP structures would be my expectation.”

30 October

🚀 Solana ETF launched earlier this week – SOL price remains steady below $200.

🔄 Bitcoin dips 1.6% – despite Fed rate cut.

⚖️ Fear and Greed Index hovers near neutral – amid mixed market signals.

🏦 Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.0% – signals possible pause in easing cycle.

The US Federal Reserve delivered its second rate cut this year, lowering the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted it might be the last cut for 2025, noting the likelihood of waiting out the cycle before any further easing. A cautious tone that could be weighing on markets.

Bitcoin’s price dipped by about 1.6% in the last 24 hours, trading near $111,000, while Ethereum lost roughly 2%, slipping just above $3,900. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation dropped by around 1.8%. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) remains stable at just under $200 following the launch of the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF earlier this week, offering 100% exposure to SOL along with staking rewards.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index signals neutral sentiment at around 50, reflecting cautious investor positioning amid Fed uncertainty and recent market volatility.

In traditional markets, the S&P 500 closed flat yesterday, the Dow Jones dipped about 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose roughly 0.6%, showing a mixed but resilient backdrop.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

Approx. $3.85 trillion, down 1.8% from yesterday.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

Price: ~$111,000, down 1.6% in 24 hours.

Daily high: $112,450

Daily low: $109,780

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

Price: ~$3,900, down 2% in 24 hours.

📈 S&P 500 ↔️

Closed flat (-0.01%).

📉 Dow Jones Industrial Average ↘️

Down 0.2%.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

Up 0.6%.

🟡 Fear & Greed Index

Neutral at 50/100.

Newsmaker

Fed cuts benchmark rates again—signals potential pause after second cut of 2025

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to reduce the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.0%. The Fed statement emphasised heightened uncertainty around the economic outlook and downside risks to employment.

Chair Jerome Powell remarked during the press conference that while differing views remain among policymakers, the current sense is the Fed may pause rate cuts to observe the effects of previous easing moves. The Fed will continue assessing incoming economic data for future adjustments.

This rate cut followed market expectations, with CME FedWatch at ~98% probability ahead of the announcement.

28 October

🚀 Solana ETF by Bitwise launches later today – SOL price stable.

🔄 Bitcoin and others take a breather – pausing after weekend rally.

⚖️ Fear and Greed Index sits at neutral – could this change with tomorrow’s interest rate decision?

🏦 Fed expected to cut rates by 0.25% – markets watch for sentiment boost

There’s big buzz around the Solana (SOL) exchange-traded product by Bitwise, which is set to start trading in the US later today. Bitwise said Solana’s speed and scalability make it “a key platform for enabling capital markets to come on-chain.” Despite the excitement, markets, including SOL, are taking a breather this morning after the weekend rally sparked by softer-than-expected US inflation numbers on Friday. Will the situation change when markets in the US wake up, though?

SOL remains virtually unchanged since yesterday, while Bitcoin has dropped more than 1% over 24 hours. Most large-cap cryptocurrencies are following a similar trend, though mid- and lower-cap assets are diverging. Hedera (HBAR) is outperforming with a 15%+ rally overnight.

The Fear and Greed Index remains at 50, reflecting neutral sentiment among investors.

All eyes are on the Fed’s interest rate decision tomorrow. The CME FedWatch tool shows that nearly 98% of investors trading fed funds futures expect a 0.25% rate cut. The tool tracks market expectations of US monetary policy, providing a real-time snapshot of investor sentiment toward Fed actions. Could this anticipated move bolster crypto market sentiment? Investors will be watching closely.

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

The global crypto market cap is approximately $3.9  trillion, down 1% from this time yesterday.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

Price: $114,165 down 1.24% in the last 24 h.
Daily high: $115,755
Daily low: $113,599

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

SPY is currently up 1.23% since yesterday’s close.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

The Nasdaq 100 is up about 1.83% overnight.

🟡 Fear & Greed Index

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 50/100, in Neutral.

*Data is correct as at 28 October 07:41 GMT.

Newsmaker

Bitwise launches first US Solana staking ETF, offering direct exposure to spot SOL

Bitwise Asset Management announced the launch of its Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), the first US-listed exchange-traded product providing 100% direct exposure to Solana’s spot token (SOL). Trading begins later today, marking a milestone for Solana’s growing presence in mainstream financial markets.
The ETF will stake all of its assets through Bitwise Onchain Solutions, powered by infrastructure provider Helius Labs, to capture Solana’s average staking reward rate of over 7%, according to Bitwise. The fund will temporarily waive its management fee, offering investors short-term zero-fee exposure to Solana’s potential yield and price performance.
Bitwise said Solana’s speed and scalability make it “a key platform for enabling capital markets to come on-chain.” The launch comes amid rising institutional interest in Solana-based products and follows the broader expansion of crypto-linked ETFs in the US.

26 October

📈 Bitcoin rises 2.7% overnight – trading above $115K.

🔥 Ethereum climbs 5% – to reclaim $4,000.

🏦 US inflation softer than expected – markets now expect a 0.25% Fed rate cut.

The Fear and Greed Index has climbed out of Fear into Neutral after a strong pulse in crypto markets. Bitcoin jumped 2.7% overnight to trade above $115K, while Ethereum (ETH) surged more than 5% over 24 hours to reclaim the $4,000 level. Most other crypto assets are also in the green, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) posting a standout gain of over 8%.

US inflation data for September came in lower than expected on Friday, making the Fed’s rate decision somewhat easier this week if it decides to trim rates, with markets pricing in a 0.25% cut. US stocks also rose on the news, as economists note that weakening labour market signals combined with softer inflation support the case for looser monetary policy. The Financial Times reports: Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University, said the data, together with “signs of a weakening labour market, pretty much seals the deal for a rate cut” at the Fed’s next meeting.

Markets appear to be shrugging off some of the lingering negative sentiment from President Donald Trump’s announced tariffs on China. Could the combination of stronger crypto performance and supportive macro data help momentum build into the Fed’s rate decision and towards the end of the year?

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↗️

The global crypto market cap is approximately $3.9  trillion, up 3% from this time yesterday.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

Price: $115,079 up 2.26% in the last 24 h.
Daily high: $116,032
Daily low: $111,753

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

SPY is currently up 0.75% since yesterday’s close.

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

The Nasdaq 100 is up about 1.04% overnight.

🟡 Fear & Greed Index

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 51/100, in Neutral.

*Data is correct as at 27 October 08:52 GMT.

Newsmaker

US inflation comes in lower than expected

“A tamer-than-expected US inflation report for September injected optimism into markets,” CNBC reports.
“Inflation might not be slowing but it’s not surprising to the upside anymore,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have started the week in the green, while the price of Bitcoin has climbed 2.7% overnight.

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Crypto slides as BOJ announced possible rate hike, and Ethereum eyes Fusaka upgrade

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

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🟠 Fear & Greed Index

Newsmaker

Bank of Japan announces potential rate cut in December

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📈 S&P 500 ↗️

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Newsmaker

Solana dev proposes new tokenomics

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📈 S&P 500 ↗️

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Newsmaker

October US inflation report cancelled

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🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

📈 S&P 500 ↘️

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🟠 Fear & Greed Index

Newsmaker

Bitwise spot XRP ETF launches

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🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

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Newsmaker

Nvidia earnings beat Wall Street expectations

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🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

📈 S&P 500 ↘️

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↘️

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

Newsmaker

Investors await Nvidia Q3 earnings results tomorrow

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🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

📈 S&P 500 ↘️

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

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Newsmaker

Harvard triples down on Bitcoin bet

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↗️

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↗️

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

Newsmaker

Clear the data fog by prioritising US November economic data, say economists

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↘️

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️

🟣 Ethereum (ETH) ↘️

📈 S&P 500 ↗️

📈 Nasdaq 100 ↘️

🟠 Fear & Greed Index

Newsmaker

Uniswap price surges on upgrade proposal

🌍 Total crypto market cap ↗️

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↗️